How I Successfully Forecast The Result Of The EU Referendum

Gosh, this is embarrassing. I seem to have done the double.

This is a sequel to my blog from last year How I Successfully Forecast The Results Of The UK General Election.

A few days ago I had a try at forecasting the result of the EU Referendum. My analysis predicted 51.4% for Leave and 48.6% for Remain, although I had a few caveats about the fear factor and the role of bad weather. The final result was 51.9% and 48.1%. This forecasting business is a piece of cake.

Details here:

A Proper Analysis Of The EU Referendum Polls

Essentially the polls were noisy because the samples were too small. Not exactly rocket science. And the averaging that some newspapers etc. were doing just didn’t make any statistical sense.

My impression of the result is that the common man was sick of all the bullying from the politicians (World War III, The end of Western Civilization), the CEOs (spouting rubbish from the comfort of their private islands), the manipulative bankers (Goldman Sachs being the prime example, behind so many bad things that have happened lately), and the luvvies (in their pink berets, I mean is Eddie Izzard really going to lose ticket sales to a comedian from Germany?). None of those has to worry about state education, the NHS, being undercut by Eastern Europeans. It was quite beautiful to watch. As dramatic as the Eurovision Song Contest but the UK won. I am proud of the voters. For a while there I confess to being worried that the British character had been lost.

As we now enter the stage of negotiating with the EU I’d like to also mention something I wrote after the 2010 General Election in this blog:

How I Successfully Forecast The Results Of The UK General Election 2015

I wrote “If this is the quality of horse trading we can expect from the current crop of British politicians then Lord help us when we have to haggle with the wider world.” This was in reference to negotiations leading to the coalition. It was prescient of Cameron’s feeble negotiation with the EU earlier this year. So please, for the sake of the UK, can Cameron’s replacement be someone with better negotiating skills? Put a businessman in charge of haggling, not another PR person.

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