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Topic Title: Depression and War
Created On Thu Dec 11, 08 09:50 AM

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jomni
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Thu Dec 11, 08 09:50 AM

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We all know that the major economies got out of the Great Depression by waging a World War. The war economies of the US, UK and Germany got the ball rolling again. Japan and the Soviet Union (which actually shuns capitalist excess) wasn't hit by the Great Depression because they were isolated and on "war economy mode" before the Depression can even hit it them. So will we expect a big war this time around?

BTW, the US is technically at war and do you see it helping the economy?

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manolom
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Thu Dec 11, 08 10:38 AM

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Quote
Originally posted by: jomni BTW, the US is technically at war and do you see it helping the economy?

Countries currently combated by US are far from being economically powerful, which makes an important difference between the post-Depression scenario and today.

Edited: Thu Dec 11, 08 at 10:38 AM by manolom

Martinghoul
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Thu Dec 11, 08 10:59 AM

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I totally agree with Clausewitz in that war is just a logical continuation, but I would say it's a continuation of economics, not of politics. Specifically, when an existing system of resource allocation fails, stresses become so great that political solutions can no longer work. Then war becomes the only way to resolve the quandary. With that in mind, I am pretty confident we're gonna have a war and that Iraq doesn't count.

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Edited: Thu Dec 11, 08 at 10:59 AM by Martinghoul

Collector
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Thu Dec 11, 08 12:04 PM

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I think it was Albert that once said:

"I don't know what kind of weapons will be used in the third world war. But I can tell you what the fourth world war will be fought with -- stone clubs"

So I guess time to invest in a solid cave, in the long run they should go up in value!

PaperCut
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Thu Dec 11, 08 12:29 PM

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Quote
Originally posted by: jomni...BTW, the US is technically at war and do you see it helping the economy?

I'm not sure if most people really appreciate the true industrial production capacity of the US. It is enormous. The amount of manufacturing activity associated with an Iraq/Afghanistan conflict is not consequential. Not even close.

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fars1d3s
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Thu Dec 11, 08 01:41 PM

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How can a war save a country from depressions ?? Please explain.

trackstar
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Thu Dec 11, 08 02:24 PM

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Not being naive, but I think there is a chance that this next "war" will be on unemployment locally (see the move towards a WPA 2 in US) and perhaps poverty/lack of infrastructure on a broader scale. (I do not mean The World Bank, as we know it, either.)

Have read the Clausewitz, Virilio and Lottringer (Pure War) and Jared Diamond (Guns, Germs and Steel), among others. But I agree with Collector, if there is life after a real WW III, the next one would be fought with rocks and clubs, if at all.

Seen in a certain light, we already have a financial war, but it may be better in the long run than isolationism.

Virilio:

'The first deterrence, nuclear deterrence, is presently being superseded by the second deterrence: a type of deterrence based on what I call 'the information bomb' associated with the new weaponry of information and communications technologies. Thus, in the very near future, and I stress this important point, it will no longer be war that is the continuation of politics by other means, it will be what I have dubbed 'the integral accident' that is the continuation of politics by other means.'

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Edited: Thu Dec 11, 08 at 09:09 PM by trackstar

rmax
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Thu Dec 11, 08 04:12 PM

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To say the USSR was not in depression between 1919 and 1945 would be a difficult point to argue. I think the failure of Lenin's NEP and then of Stalin's 5 year plans show that something was happening. It might not have been depression in the usual sense of the word, but their economy was paralised.

Martinghoul: sense as usual: I had never thought of Clauswitz in that way - economics is indeed a greater driver of war. As Gullivar says to the Hounonyms - The onyl reason for man to fight is to get someones elses land.

The US production is nothing like a war footing. At the end of WW2 there was a factory in the mid-west buliding Betsy bombers -they had fields of them standing there doing nothing and not going to be used as it was coming to the end of the war, so they cut the work force. production doubled. They cut it again. Production doubled again. It was only when they did the third cut, did production slow down.

Cuchulainn
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Thu Dec 11, 08 05:40 PM

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Quote
Originally posted by: rmax

The US production is nothing like a war footing. At the end of WW2 there was a factory in the mid-west buliding Betsy bombers -they had fields of them standing there doing nothing and not going to be used as it was coming to the end of the war, so they cut the work force. production doubled. They cut it again. Production doubled again. It was only when they did the third cut, did production slow down.

Have you read Brooks's "Mythical Man Month"? Adding more people to a software project slows it down. In a network of N agents ==> N(N-1)/2 possible communication paths.

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Edited: Thu Dec 11, 08 at 05:41 PM by Cuchulainn

rmax
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Thu Dec 11, 08 06:14 PM

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Quote
Originally posted by: Cuchulainn
Quote
Originally posted by: rmax

The US production is nothing like a war footing. At the end of WW2 there was a factory in the mid-west buliding Betsy bombers -they had fields of them standing there doing nothing and not going to be used as it was coming to the end of the war, so they cut the work force. production doubled. They cut it again. Production doubled again. It was only when they did the third cut, did production slow down.

Have you read Brooks's "Mythical Man Month"? Adding more people to a software project slows it down. In a network of N agents ==> N(N-1)/2 possible communication paths.

I have not, but have experienced panicking managers adopting the "Mongolian Hoards" approach to project management, and not getting very far. Software design and build is much more a R&D type endeavour similar to building houses and office blocks - these projects have many parallels and have multiple stakeholders and hence communication paths. I have never studied it however manufacturing has a different model: bolt wing onto fuselage - not much room for opinion and hence I don't believe communication is such an issue - furthermore most software projects are run on some form of matrix manufacturing is more hierarchical.

My 2 cents - well at current rates my 2p and 2 EUR cents too.

DavidJN
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Thu Dec 11, 08 08:39 PM

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"This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence -- economic, political, even spiritual -- is felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the very structure of our society. In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the militaryindustrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together."
Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1961

PaperCut
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Thu Dec 11, 08 10:02 PM

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Quote
Originally posted by: DavidJN
"This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence -- economic, political, even spiritual -- is felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the very structure of our society. In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the militaryindustrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together."
Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1961

Amen.

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mathematocrat
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Fri Dec 12, 08 12:24 AM

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There won't be anymore World War II's; the days of modern industrialized nations waging total war ended with the invention of nuclear weapons. This is why it is probably correct to say that nuclear weapons have saved more lives than any invention in history. What you will see going forward are more police actions in failed 3rd world states and anti-terrorist operations. I don't see how this helps the economy, do you? Drawing analogies to the 1930's and 40's is a big fallacy. In general I agree with Einstein; if there is an all-out war in the future, it will be the last one before a return to a hunter-gatherer economy, or the complete eradication of humans by designer viruses, runaway nanotechnology or a superior form of intelligence (the negative Singularity). I don't think most people realize how different the future is going to look -- I'm expecting continual disruption by technological black swans, not any kind of linear extrapolation from the past (assuming a religious dark age doesn't ensue, which is another strong possibility).

Edited: Fri Dec 12, 08 at 01:04 AM by mathematocrat

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