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Topic Title: Global Warming - Impacts, Vulnerability, Adaptation
Created On Fri Jul 22, 05 01:51 PM

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Sashka
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Posts: 109
Joined: Jul 2002

Wed Nov 02, 05 07:26 PM

Maybe I should and I would. I just can't pick any. What did you read? Which do you recommend? I'm going through the full list of his publications and I can see exactly one that apeears to be scientific:

Schneider, S.H. and R.E. Dickinson, 1976: "Parameterizations of Fractional Cloud Amounts in Climate Models: The Importance of Modeling Multiple Reflections", J. Appl. Meteorol., 15: 1050-1056.

but there's no .pdf attached so I can't tell for sure. Everything else could as well be written by a liberal arts major.

Edited: Wed Nov 02, 05 at 07:39 PM by Sashka

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TraderJoe
Senior Member

Posts: 11057
Joined: Feb 2005

Wed Nov 02, 05 07:35 PM

Wow. Good list of references sashka. Keep up your good work!

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That the ultimate felicity of man consists in the contemplation of God � St. Thomas Aquinas.

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JWD
Senior Member

Posts: 1306
Joined: Mar 2005

Wed Nov 02, 05 07:41 PM

Sashka ?

OK, here are a few papers to start off with. Since you think that they?re all liberal-arts stuff, I?m sure you will be able to read them quickly. If you get through these, go to the Google Scholar second page ? you?ll find more.

Stanford website:
Publications. Only the 5 most recent displayed. View the complete list of publications.

Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution
Terry L. Root, Dena MacMynowski, Michael D. Mastrandrea, Stephen H. Schneider; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2005)

Probabilistic assessment of "dangerous" climate change and emissions pathways
Stephen H. Schneider, Michael D. Mastrandrea; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2005)

Abrupt non-linear climate change, irreversibility and surprise
Stephen H. Schneider; Global Environmental Change (2004)

Are We Consuming Too Much?
Kenneth J. Arrow, Partha Dasgupta, Lawrence H. Goulder, Gretchen C. Daily, Paul Ehrlich, Geoffrey Heal, Simon Levin, Karl-Goran Maler, Stephen H. Schneider, David Starrett, Brian Walker; Journal of Economic Perspectives (2004)

Probabilistic Integrated Assessment of "Dangerous" Climate Change
Michael D. Mastrandrea, Stephen H. Schneider; Science (2004)

Google Scholar first page:
Scholar Results 1 - 10 of about 18,800 for Stephen Schneider. (0.04 seconds)

Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants
? JT Price, KR Hall, SH Schneider, C Rosenzweig, JA ? - Nature, 2003 - nature.com
Over the past 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by
approximately 0.6 �C and is projected to continue to rise at a rapid rate ...
Cited by 202 - Web Search - frontiersinzoology.com - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov - csa.com

Induced technological change and the attractiveness of CO 2 abatement policies
LH Goulder, SH Schneider - Resource and Energy Economics, 1999 - stephenschneider.stanford.edu
This paper investigates the significance of induced technological change ITC for
the attractiveness of CO abatement policies. We use analytical and ...
Cited by 93 - Web Search - ingentaconnect.com - ideas.repec.org - all 5 versions �

Extreme high-temperature events: changes in their probabilities with changes in mean temperature
LO Mearns, RW Katz, SH Schneider - Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1984 - ams.allenpress.com
Most climate impact studies rely on changes in means of meteorological
variables, such as temperature, to estimate potential climate impacts, ...
Cited by 81 - Web Search - ams.allenpress.com - adsabs.harvard.edu

Integrated assessment modeling of global climate change: Transparent rational tool for policy making ?
SH Schneider - Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 1997 - springerlink.com
One of the principal tools used in the integrated assessment (IA) of
environmental science, technology and policy problems is integrated ...
Cited by 78 - Web Search - kluweronline.com

What is" dangerous" climate change?
SH Schneider - Nature, 2001 - nature.com
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 1995. Contribution of
working group I to the second assessment report of IPCC (eds Houghton, JT ...
Cited by 71 - Web Search - stephenschneider.stanford.edu - adsabs.harvard.edu - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov - all 7 versions �

Atmospheric CO 2 and climate- Importance of the transient response
SH SCHNEIDER, SL THOMPSON - Journal of Geophysical Research, 1981 - adsabs.harvard.edu
Title: Atmospheric CO2 and climate - Importance of the transient response Authors:
Schneider, SH; Thompson, SL Affiliation: AA(National Center for Atmospheric ...
Cited by 46 - Web Search - csa.com

Integrated assessment of abrupt climatic changes
M Mastrandrea, SH Schneider - Climate Policy, 2001 - iiasa.ac.at
Keywords: Emergent properties of coupled socio?natural systems; Integrated
assessment; Abrupt non-linear climate change; Thermohaline circulation; ...
Cited by 45 - View as HTML - Web Search - iis-db.stanford.edu - ingentaconnect.com - all 6 versions �

Simulating the effects of climate change on tropical montane cloud forests
CJ Still, PN Foster, SH Schneider - Nature, 1999 - nature.com
Christopher J. Still*�, Prudence N. Foster� & Stephen H. Schneider* *
Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, ...
Cited by 43 - Web Search - stephenschneider.stanford.edu - cas.bellarmine.edu - csa.com - all 5 versions �

Detecting climatic change signals: Are there any ?fingerprints?
SH Schneider - Science, 1994 - adsabs.harvard.edu
Projected changes in the Earth's climate can be driven from a combined set of
forcing factors consisting of regionally heterogeneous anthropogenic and ...
Cited by 40 - Web Search

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Edited: Wed Nov 02, 05 at 07:43 PM by JWD

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TraderJoe
Senior Member

Posts: 11057
Joined: Feb 2005

Wed Nov 02, 05 08:15 PM

Yes, it's worms like sashka who try to disrupt intelligent debate on climate change, a contrarian tactic that when uncovered is pitiful to say the least. Stephen H Schneider is a well qualified and respected member of the global warming scientific community as his homepage testifies, as does his Stanford University page. Pity he is not here - I'd like to watch sashka level these criticisms to his face. This whole contrarian argument is based on deceipt and I wouldn't waste my time on him JD. Bye bye sashka.

Cheers,
TJ.

-------------------------
That the ultimate felicity of man consists in the contemplation of God � St. Thomas Aquinas.

Edited: Wed Nov 02, 05 at 08:23 PM by TraderJoe

Posts: 109
Joined: Jul 2002

Wed Nov 02, 05 08:23 PM

Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Biological -> irrelevant.

Probabilistic assessment of "dangerous" climate change: MC simulation over arbitrarily assigned probabilities.

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We do not recommend that our quantitative results be taken literally, but we suggest that our probabilistic framework and methods be taken seriously.

You call this science? Not only the probabilities are unknown; they are also arguable not knowable. I've seen term papers more meaningful than this. BTW, it's not peer-reviewed (I think). And why did you mention it twice?

Abrupt non-linear climate change, irreversibility and surprise: previous expanded. Workshop presentation. Not peer reviewed.

Are We Consuming Too Much?: Are you kidding me? How is this related to climate?

From your google search I'll simply highlight the keywords to underscore the irrelevance.

Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants

Induced technological change and the attractiveness of CO 2 abatement policies

Extreme high-temperature events: changes in their probabilities with changes in mean temperature
LO Mearns, RW Katz, SH Schneider - Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1984 (This could be scientific but notice the year.)

What is" dangerous" climate change?... Contribution of working group I to the second assessment report of IPCC

Atmospheric CO 2 and climate- Importance of the transient response SH SCHNEIDER, SL THOMPSON - Journal of Geophysical Research, 1981 (This could be scientific but notice the year.)

Simulating the effects of climate change on tropical montane cloud forests

Detecting climatic change signals. -> OK, I'll count it as scientific.

Let's take the stock. One 6 pages long paper in the nineties (+ crap MC simulation), two in eighties and two in the seventies. Exactly what I meant.

Edited: Wed Nov 02, 05 at 09:04 PM by Sashka

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TraderJoe
Senior Member

Posts: 11057
Joined: Feb 2005

Wed Nov 02, 05 08:38 PM

Your "cleverness" will be your undoing son.

Great paper BTW Irreversibility & Surprise.

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That the ultimate felicity of man consists in the contemplation of God � St. Thomas Aquinas.

Edited: Wed Nov 02, 05 at 09:10 PM by TraderJoe

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JWD
Senior Member

Posts: 1306
Joined: Mar 2005

Thu Nov 03, 05 05:38 AM

Sashka ?

Schneider?s Biography
Not so fast. Google has much more - at least 8 pages of publications by Schneider; I only pasted the first one. So he has written numerous scientific papers - far more than just five, even according to your filtered definition.

Moreover, some things you eliminated as irrelevant scientifically are certainly relevant in terms of impact of global warming ? effects on animals and plants are important ? everything being interconnected means these can effect human adaptability as well.

?Are we consuming too much? is written with K. Arrow, famous economist. Shows some flexibility. This is definitely related to global warming because, I?m sure you get it, CO2 is produced by human fossil fuel burning which is directly related to consumption.

Sure, Schneider has turned to activities like the IPCC. Fine. That?s responsible and appropriate for a senior scientist.

This exchange has only reinforced the fact that Schneider is a respected senior worker in the field with high-level positions in a leadership capacity including the IPCC, contributes to more than one subject, and has published numerous scientific papers. Schneider sees the whole picture.

Schneider?s Website
I recommend that anyone reading this thread consult Stephen Schneider?s website as an authoritative source for issues regarding global warming, including links to contrarians. For the record, Sashka, his website has a good description of the satellite saga ? if you had been consulting it you would have seen the problems with the satellite analysis long before I pointed them out to you.

Back to Global Warming Impacts
I suggest we stop discussing Stephen Schneider and get back to global warming impacts.
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Edited: Thu Nov 03, 05 at 04:12 PM by JWD

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TraderJoe
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Posts: 11057
Joined: Feb 2005

Thu Nov 03, 05 03:53 PM

Great paper here Jan.

Arctic Climate Change, WWF, 2005.

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That the ultimate felicity of man consists in the contemplation of God � St. Thomas Aquinas.

Edited: Thu Nov 03, 05 at 03:54 PM by TraderJoe

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JWD
Senior Member

Posts: 1306
Joined: Mar 2005

Thu Nov 03, 05 04:43 PM

Thanks, TJ. I?ll read it.
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Posts: 109
Joined: Jul 2002

Fri Nov 04, 05 08:45 PM

Quote
Originally posted by: JanDash
Sashka –

Schneider’s Biography
Not so fast. Google has much more - at least 8 pages of publications by Schneider; I only pasted the first one. So he has written numerous scientific papers - far more than just five, even according to your filtered definition.

Moreover, some things you eliminated as irrelevant scientifically are certainly relevant in terms of impact of global warming – effects on animals and plants are important – everything being interconnected means these can effect human adaptability as well.

“Are we consuming too much” is written with K. Arrow, famous economist. Shows some flexibility. This is definitely related to global warming because, I’m sure you get it, CO2 is produced by human fossil fuel burning which is directly related to consumption.

Sure, Schneider has turned to activities like the IPCC. Fine. That’s responsible and appropriate for a senior scientist.

This exchange has only reinforced the fact that Schneider is a respected senior worker in the field with high-level positions in a leadership capacity including the IPCC, contributes to more than one subject, and has published numerous scientific papers. Schneider sees the whole picture.

Schneider’s Website
I recommend that anyone reading this thread consult Stephen Schneider’s website as an authoritative source for issues regarding global warming, including links to contrarians. For the record, Sashka, his website has a good description of the satellite saga – if you had been consulting it you would have seen the problems with the satellite analysis long before I pointed them out to you.

Jan,

If you really don't see a world of a difference between both quality and quantity of scientific contribution of Schneider and people like Lindzen, Held or Pierrehumbert then I rest my case.

It's certainly appropriate for a senior scientist to be on panels etc. But it's appropriate in addition to doing science, not instead of. Then again other people become senior by doing science which he did little of (we can go through all his papers if you think there is anything else there).

His site is not uninformative but so biased that I have no interest to read it. Perhaps to my own detriment, as your example shows.

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JWD
Senior Member

Posts: 1306
Joined: Mar 2005

Sat Nov 05, 05 12:52 AM

Sashka ?

OK, one more post about Schneider. You keep changing the criteria. For the record, no, although I haven?t read Schneider?s papers, I don?t know but probably wouldn?t assume they technically measure up to those of Lindzen and Pierrehumbert, or since you put him in the same category, Held. This doesn?t mean Lindzen is right. Since you brought up Held and Lindzen, as you know Held has written a paper stating why various of Lindzen?s critiques have been rejected. It also doesn?t mean that Schneider isn?t a competent scientist and that he hasn?t done good work. He has written many published papers ? scientific according to your definition, along with many others related to global warming. I?m not about to go through them, and I?m not competent to judge them. You said: ? Gavin Schmidt who defended Steven Schneider as a "senior worker in the field". This implies confidence in Schneider?s record. I?ll take Gavin?s word for it. In any case, this is not a fruitful discussion.

How about if you apply some of your considerable knowledge and talent to tear apart some of the better-known contrarians. I?m not talking about Lindzen here but the people who influence public opinion, like Patrick Michaels. How about a critique of his linear theory, or whatever it is? I?d really like to see what you have to say.

Re Schneider?s website ? needless to say I disagree. In any case, since you say that you have no interest in reading what?s in it, I don?t see how you can be so categorical. Tell you what. How about if you show me a website that you consider unbiased on global warming; I?d be quite interested ? and I?ll look at it.
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Edited: Sat Nov 05, 05 at 02:16 PM by JWD

Posts: 109
Joined: Jul 2002

Mon Nov 07, 05 05:08 PM

Jan,

Re: Lindzen. Even if he is occasionally wrong and no doubt very stubborn, it doesn't change the fact that he is a leading atmospheric scientist of his generation. Remember that GW theories critique is just a small fraction of his work. You saw his publication list. Now compare randomly selected papers. Look just for level of math involved, that's an easy criterion.

Re: the Schneider's site. I did try to read about the hockey stick controversy there. You can try the same. If you can discern from Schneider's presentation exactly what McIntyre and McKitrick's criticisms are (and what other criticisms of the original MBH work emerged later) then again I'll rest my case.

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JWD
Senior Member

Posts: 1306
Joined: Mar 2005

Wed Nov 09, 05 12:09 AM

Sashka ?

Still waiting for your acerbic critique of Patrick Michaels? linear theory or whatever it is. Michaels is very influential and his contrarian views are used politically to justify the present US government?s denial policy toward global warming. He plays a role on Wilmott too ? ppauper likes to quote him (see the scientific thread). So how about it?
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Edited: Wed Nov 09, 05 at 12:10 AM by JWD

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TraderJoe
Senior Member

Posts: 11057
Joined: Feb 2005

Thu Nov 10, 05 01:44 PM

Seems like the business community is not willing to wait around for the contrarians on this (as expected). The only people the contrarians are fooling are themselves.

The Finance of Climate Change.

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That the ultimate felicity of man consists in the contemplation of God � St. Thomas Aquinas.

Posts: 109
Joined: Jul 2002

Thu Nov 10, 05 05:45 PM

Jan,

I'm not familiar with Michaels' work. I don't want to spend time on getting into it because it seems waste of time. He's not influential in the scientific community anyhow. People who would listen to him because he says what they like to hear are not going to listen to me anyway.

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TraderJoe
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Posts: 11057
Joined: Feb 2005

Thu Nov 10, 05 08:20 PM

Quote
Originally posted by: Sashka
Jan,

I'm not familiar with Michaels' work. I don't want to spend time on getting into it because it seems waste of time. He's not influential in the scientific community anyhow. People who would listen to him because he says what they like to hear are not going to listen to me anyway.

I thought you two were like colleagues or something.

-------------------------
That the ultimate felicity of man consists in the contemplation of God � St. Thomas Aquinas.