All New Wilmott Jobs Board                     (b)

Chaos in oil markets driving up my book sales - in France!


A former colleague at French Banque BNP Paribas emailed to tell me that they seem to love my book over there.


Classement des meilleures ventes d'Amazon:
2.431 en Livres anglais et étrangers (Voir les 100 premiers en Livres anglais et étrangers)
 n°1 dans Livres anglais et étrangers > Science > Physics > Energy
n°12 dans Livres anglais et étrangers > Business & Investing >Investing

Well, to my French brothers and sisters, I say merci beaucoup! LOL!

Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah Is Dead


Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud has died and will be succeeded by his half-brother, Crown Prince Salman, at the helm of the world’s biggest oil exporter.

King Abdullah died at 1 a.m. in Riyadh, the royal court said in a statement. He became Saudi Arabia’s sixth king in August 2005 and de facto ruler in 1996 after King Fahd was incapacitated by a stroke. Prince Muqrin, another half-brother, has been named Crown Prince, the state-run Saudi Press Agency said.

The succession comes as the Arab world’s biggest economy confronts unprecedented political instability in the Middle East and a slump in oil prices.

Please read more at Bloomberg News.

Europe plunged into energy crisis as Russia cuts off gas supply via Ukraine

Russia cut gas exports to Europe by 60 per cent today, plunging the continent into an energy crisis 'within hours' as a dispute with Ukraine escalated.

This morning, gas companies in Ukraine said that Russia had completely cut off their supply.

Six countries reported a complete shut-off of Russian gas shipped via Ukraine today, in a sharp escalation of a struggle over energy that threatens Europe as winter sets in.

Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia and Turkey all reported a halt in gas shipments from Russia through Ukraine.

Please read more here.

Fortune: World's Winners & Losers From Cheap Oil (chart)

Investor Jeff Gundlach: "If Oil Drops To $40 The Geopolitical Consequences Could Be Terrifying"


In a recent interview, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach explained his concerns about the oil market not being "unequivocally good" for everyone.

“Oil is incredibly important right now,” Gundlach said in a recent interview with FuW. “If oil falls to around $40 a barrel then I think the yield on ten year treasury note is going to 1%. I hope it does not go to $40 because then something is very, very wrong with the world, not just the economy. The geopolitical consequences could be – to put it bluntly – terrifying.”

Please read more here and here.

Bloomberg: Geneva's Army of Oil Traders Embraces Profits a Crash Brings


Crude oil’s worst slump since the financial crisis means profits for Geneva’s army of traders.

After years of steady prices, the crash has brought back the volatility on which traders thrive. While the fall in benchmark Brent to five-year lows has rocked economies fromRussia to Venezuela, the world’s biggest commodity trading houses, which buy and sell about a third of the world’s oil from the Swiss city, are relishing the return to a bear market.

Lower prices have cut financing costs, provided an opportunity to lock in profits by storing fuels and heralded the return of big price swings that can help firms from Vitol Group to Trafigura Beheer BV generate higher returns.

“Commodity traders are in a much more optimistic mood these days,” Roland Rechtsteiner, a Zurich-based partner at Oliver Wyman, an industry consultant. “They all hold a lot of inventory, they hold a lot of infrastructure and this can only be monetized when there is volatility. So these are good times for them.”

As banks including JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Plc (BARC) have exited or pulled back their physical commodity activities, trading houses have purchased assets such as storage tanks, pipelines and refineries. These holdings give traders more options to take advantage of the sudden shift in prices.

Please read more here and here.

Bloomberg: Quants Make Money From Plunge in Oil Prices


Scientists, mathematicians and engineers are beating star managers by capturing price discrepancies across markets, making money from a plunge in oil prices and on government bonds that human traders dismissed...

Quants are succeeding as some of the most well known stock and bond pickers struggle in forecasting the outcome of corporate mergers or gauging the impact of central bankers on markets. Richard Perry, Jeffrey Altman and Paul Tudor Jones are underperforming equity and credit indexes this year; billionaire John Paulson has lost 27 percent in his event-driven fund and hedge funds are closing at a rate not seen since the financial crisis.

Please read more here.

Sheikhs vs Shale: New Economics of Oil

The Trading Report: Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This?

Source: Bloomberg


( There has only been one other time in history when the price of oil has crashed by more than 40 dollars in less than 6 months.  The last time this happened was during the second half of 2008, and the beginning of that oil price crash preceded the great financial collapse that happened later that year by several months.  Well, now it is happening again, but this time the stakes are even higher.  When the price of oil falls dramatically, that is a sign that economic activity is slowing down.  It can also have a tremendously destabilizing affect on financial markets.  ... energy companies now account for approximately 20 percent of the junk bond market.  And a junk bond implosion is usually a signal that a major stock market crash is on the way.  

Please read more here and here.

Forbes' Columnist Gaurav Sharma: An Instructive Approach to Energy Trading Tenets






This was a great Thanksgiving with family and friends - the first one in New Orleans in a very long time. However, it was a bit touch and go with our turkey though. But that's a story for another time. LOL!

More seriously, I received an email from the marketing department at Wiley Publishers - packed with lots of great news about my energy book:

Kinda like receiving lots of early Christmas presents. Thanks LBS, Mr. Sharma and Wiley!

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