Models That Work


Some of the students in my Energy Trading classes seem to really like Bollinger Bands (BB).  I mean really seriously like them. During our midterm trading competition one team has so many BB's crammed into a screen of charts, that it made me dizzy looking at them. LOL!

One of my students (who is not a big fan of BB) emailed the photo above - taking a jab at his fellow BB-loving classmates. LOL!

Columbia University Energy Symposium


Columbia University's Annual Energy Symposium is the largest student-led energy event on campus, established to foster an exchange of ideas between industry professionals, students, and members of the academic body. The Symposium is jointly organized by the School of International and Public Affairs' Student Energy Association, the Columbia Graduate School of Business' Energy Club, and the Columbia Law Schools’ Environmental Law Society to offer a wide spectrum of perspectives that reflect the interdisciplinary nature of the energy industry today.


Every year, several hundred participants explore the key drivers impacting the energy business. On November 21, 2014, the 10th Annual Columbia University Energy Symposium will convene thought-leaders and practitioners from the energy sector, representing industry, government, civil society, and the broader Columbia and New York community to discuss the interplay between our existing systems and the players entering the energy world.


Please see more here.

MIT Economist Jonathan Gruber: "Stupidity" of Americans Would've Killed Obamacare

Well, not all of us Americans are stupid Gruber. I posted several blogs on detailing the Obamacare taxes. 

Greenspan's Stunning Admission: Gold Is Currency; No Fiat Currency, Including the Dollar, Can Match


by Tyler Durden


For some reason, the Council of Foreign Relations, where ex-Fed-Chief Alan Greenspan spoke last week, decided the following discussion should be left out of the official transcript. We can perhaps understand why... as Gillian Tett concludes, "comments like that will be turning you into a rock star amongst the gold bug community."


Greenspan (Uncut):


TETT: Do you think that gold is currently a good investment?

GREENSPAN: Yes... Remember what we're looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency. No fiat currency, including the dollar, can macth it.


Which is missing from the official CFR transcript...


GREENSPAN: ...remember, we had that first tapering discussion, we got a very strong market response. And then we reassured everybody to have no -- remember, tapering is still (audio gap) of an agreement that the central banks have made -- European central banks, I believe -- about allocating their gold sales which occurred when gold prices were falling down (audio gap) has been renewed this year with a statement that gold serves a very important place in monetary reserves.


And the question is, why do central banks put money into an asset which has no rate of return, but cost of storage and insurance and everything else like that, why are they doing that? If you look at the data with a very few exceptions, all of the developed countries have gold reserves. Why?


TETT: I imagine right now, it's because of a question mark hanging over the value of fiat currency, the credibility going forward.


GREENSPAN: Well, that's what I'm getting at. Every time you get some really serious questions, the 50 percent of the gold price determination begins to move.


TETT: Right.


GREENSPAN: And I think it is fascinating and -- I don't know, is Benn Steil in the audience?


TETT: Yes.


GREENSPAN: There he is, OK. Before you read my book, go read Benn's book. The reason is, you'll find it fascinating on exactly this issue, because here you have the ultimate test at the Mount Washington Hotel in 1944 of the real intellectual debate between the -- those who wanted to an international fiat currency which was embodied in John Maynard Keynes' construct of a banker, and he was there in 1944, holding forth with all of his prestige, but couldn't counter the fact that the United States dollar was convertible into gold and that was the major draw.Everyone wanted America's gold. And I think that Benn really described that in extraordinarily useful terms, as far as I can see. Anyway, thank you.


TETT: Right. Well, I'm sure with comments like that, that will be turning you into a rock star amongst the gold bug community.

Please see more on

FuelFix: Enron Castaway Shrugs Off Low Price To Become "Apple of Oil"

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) — As crude prices plunge below $80 a barrel and billions are erased from the market value of energy companies, there’s one U.S. oil producer that most analysts still think makes a good buy.

EOG Resources Inc., formerly a part of the old Enron Corp. empire, has emerged as the most-recommended stock in the oil industry. The Houston-based company is the only shale producer expected to generate more cash than it spends both this year and next after oil fell to a three year low this week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Please read more here.

Bloomberg: Fund Manager Paul Singer Says Economy Fake & Deep Crash Coming


Paul Singer’s Elliott Management Corp. said optimism on U.S. growth is misguided as economic data understate inflation and overstate growth, and central bank policies of the past six years aren’t sustainable.

The market turmoil in the first half of October may be a “coming attractions” for the next real crash that could turn into a “deep financial crisis” if investors lose confidence in the effectiveness of monetary stimulus, Elliott wrote in a third-quarter letter to investors, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News.

“Nobody can predict how long governments can get away with fake growth, fake money, fake jobs, fake financial stability, fake inflation numbers and fake income growth,” New York-based Elliott wrote. “When confidence is lost, that loss can be severe, sudden and simultaneous across a number of markets and sectors.”

Please read more in Bloomberg.

Happy Halloween: Michael Jackson's "Thriller"

U.S. Dollar Decline Continues: Singapore and China to Start Direct Currency Trading

  by Simon Black


This morning some of the biggest financial news of the year made huge waves all over Asia.

Yet in the Western press, this hugely important information has barely even been mentioned. (, for example, has yet to report on this story as of 11:45am Eastern…)

So what’s the news?

The Chinese government announced that the renminbi will become directly convertible with the Singapore dollar… effective tomorrow morning.

It’s clear this deal has been in the works for a while, and it’s another major step towards the continued internationalization of the renminbi and unseating of the dollar as the world’s dominant reserve currency.

For decades the renminbi has been a tightly controlled currency. It’s only been in the last few years that the Chinese government started loosening those controls, primarily in response to the obvious need for a dollar competitor.

The entire world is screaming for an alternative to the dollar and the US government.

Please read more here.

ZeroHedge: Banker Suicides Continue...



Things that make you go hmmm...


Another Deutsche Banker & Former SEC Enforcement Attorney Commit Suicide 

by Tyler Durden


Back on January 26, a 58-year-old former senior executive at German investment bank behemoth Deutsche Bank, William Broeksmit, was found dead after hanging himself at his London home, and with that, set off an unprecedented series of banker suicides throughout the year which included former Fed officials and numerous JPMorgan traders.

Following a brief late summer spell in which there was little if any news of bankers taking their lives, as reported previously, the banker suicides returned with a bang when none other than the hedge fund partner of infamous former IMF head Dominique Strauss-Khan, Thierry Leyne, a French-Israeli entrepreneur, was found dead after jumping off the 23rd floor of one of the Yoo towers, a prestigious residential complex in Tel Aviv. 

Just a few brief hours later the WSJ reported that yet another Deutsche Bank veteran has committed suicide, and not just anyone but the bank's associate general counsel, 41 year old Calogero "Charlie" Gambino, who was found on the morning of Oct. 20, having also hung himself by the neck from a stairway banister, which according to the New York Police Department was the cause of death. We assume that any relationship to the famous Italian family carrying that last name is purely accidental.

Please