UnRisk 7

Climate changes and the wild speculative History of the Vikings

Picture show the speculative history of the Vikings in relation to climate changes the last 400 thousand years. Past to the right, present to left.. Future unknown, will the history repeat itself?

The Wall Street Vostok Analysts will Not Agree?

Vostok Ice Core, 422766 years of temperature data

Fundamental analyst:

It is a lot of bullish news out, this is going to break all records, the trend is clear and nothing can stop us from breaking new heights soon...and from then it will only go higher, in the long run it always pays off to be long! This is a hot market, very HOT!. If not even the high oil price could take it down then nothing can take this down, the fundamental stats are simply too strong, I have been in this business for more than 20 years and I know what I am talking about!

Chartist:

It is still not at the top, but getting close to resistance, if it breaks through we could head for the 320 thousand year very strong resistance line, from there I think we will see bear market heading all the way down to the 400 thousand year support level...and it will be a volatile ride, buy low sell high! Possibly we even have a reverse head and shoulder, and the Fibonacci is kind of interesting... when it turns it will take a lot of people by surprise, a lot of them will be frozen out of the market. I remember those Mammoth investors that got whipped out completely last time the market turned...

PhD quant:

The past can tell nothing about the future, it is most likely geometric Brownian motion, all we can tell is something about the distribution, and the few extreme events are probably error in the data, Gaussian returns it is...possibly we have some mean reversion but it is hard to calibrate, besides it is reflected in the market, there is No Free Lunch!

Who will you bet on: Fundamental Analyst? Chartist? or a PhD quant?

Sorry latest data point I had in database was 150 years old so I guess we already have broken first resistance line.... but will we break major resistance? ;-)