THE PROBABILITY MAN
These are not my words, but from the back cover of a little book published in 1972 (by Brian N. Ball). However these brilliant words fits well into the ongoing quant-finance debate. Probability Men in academia and practice relay too much on probabilities, probabilities that often are unknown in practice, in particular for big impact events,
”THE PROBABILITY MAN” is the title of a book I bought only because the great title, I knew nothing more about the book at time of ordering it (only paid few dollars for it). The book was not what I expected. It was a short fiction novel (175 pages) that I still not have got time to read and not sure I ever will read it from A to Z, but I browsed through a few pages the other day. A few interesting concepts are described in this book:
“He was given a Probability circuit….”
“I had to change the probabilities, somehow…” (Wow this is actually a very important concept in the article I am writing on just now)…
From the end of the book:
“…the Probability Man at the center of things! Probability Man! No! If anything, I’ll be the Uncertainty Man in the Frames!”
“We show the Alien how we can bring logic and order in a random situation. We show the Alien how probability works!”
“A new Genekey isn’t outside the Possibility Space,” said the third Guardian. “It’s and extreme conjecture, but it’s a possible factor.”
Unfortunately I am afraid Aliens will need to teach us proper probability calculus before we tell them how to relay too much on uncertain tail probabilities!
By the way we need more Probability Women (aliens) in quant finance! It is an interesting field with lots of unsolved challenges.
