Soderling Is The Real Black Swan

If Robin Soderling wins Roland Garros this weekend, that would truly be a Black Swan. Possibly more so than the fall of Lehman or October 87. In fact, by beating Nadal the Swede has already gained swany status. In tennis, the rare event is way way less probable than in the markets. A non-top tier player almost never reaches a Grand Slam final, let alone win one. There´s no crash, no meltdown, no outlier in tennis.

As a staunch Federer supporter I pray for normality to rule once more on the court. But I also fear that the Black Swan, having so insultingly dominated its more habitual financial surroundings for the past couple of years, may have grown bold enough to extend its supremacy into the Parisian clay.