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How I Successfully Forecast The Results Of The UK General Election 2015
Paul Wilmott 788 Views
Brought to you by Wilmott.com and the CQF Institute, Dr. Paul Wilmott talked about how he applied elementary quantitative finance techniques in the run up to the UK General Election 2015 to successfully predict the next government.
Comparisons are made between elections and derivatives valuation, and this allows forecasting pitfalls to be avoided, pitfalls that most, if not all, professional forecasters fell into. The results were thus far better than those made by said professionals.
Sovereign Debt Default Risk: Quantifying the (Un)Willingness to Pay by
Ephraim Clark 2477 Views

The creditworthiness of a corporate borrower depends, for all practical purposes, on its ability to pay. Sovereign borrowers generally have the power to unilaterally abrogate contractual obligations, and, thus, besides the ability to pay, their creditworthiness depends on the government's willingness or unwillingness to pay even if it has the ability.

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