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How I Successfully Forecast The Results Of The UK General Election 2015
Paul Wilmott 2022 Views
Brought to you by Wilmott.com and the CQF Institute, Dr. Paul Wilmott talked about how he applied elementary quantitative finance techniques in the run up to the UK General Election 2015 to successfully predict the next government.
Comparisons are made between elections and derivatives valuation, and this allows forecasting pitfalls to be avoided, pitfalls that most, if not all, professional forecasters fell into. The results were thus far better than those made by said professionals.
Finformatics, The Coming Revolution in Finance: Wilmott Magazine Article
Kent Osband 5372 Views

Recognition of ignorance is the first step towards wisdom.
 
"Finformatics. The word isn't yet in any dictionary. But it will be. It's short for 'financial informatics' and refers to the science of distilling useful insights from financial information. I'll give a shorter definition later. The finance world as we know it doesn't concede much space for finformatics. Conventional finance theory tells us that the long-run average return or 'drift' is irrelevant to derivatives pricing. If you believe that, options prices can't tell us anything useful about the drift, only about the volatility of the noise around the drift. Darn. That excludes half the stuff people are interested in, and the more important half at that."
 

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